A Historic Analog for the 2024 Presidential Election By Elliottwave International
On October 20, Business Insider wrote:
In just over two weeks, Election 2024 will be here — a final cap to a wild, at times unprecedented presidential fight that remains extremely close.
Wild, shocking, extremely close – Yes, yes, and yes! Election 2024 has been all these things. But “unprecedented” it is NOT!
On October 23, the Socionomics Institute’s YouTube channel “Mood & Markets” co-hosts Matt Lampert and Robert Folsom lay out one of the best historic analogs of the current political climate.
Watch the full “Mood & Markets” episode with Matt and Robert today!
The unforgettable events of this period are eerily similar to those unfolding today, including:
- Multiple wars being waged globally
- An Incumbent president who was eligible to run for a second term; however, he withdrew from the race instead due to concerns over his health and popularity.
- An assassination attempt of a major presidential candidate prior to the convention.
- A sitting vice president who steps into the race as the incumbent party’s nominee after the President chose to discontinue running for another term.
And, as Robert Folsom notes:
One Presidential candidate who exploits a polarized electorate, flouts political norms, strategically picks fights with the media, and positions themselves as the David fighting the establishment Goliath.
These Time Magazine covers position that Presidential candidate next to the one running on the 2024 Republican ticket, Donald Trump.
The former’s campaign slogan “Stand Up for America,” is a page right out of Trump’s playbook, who in 2022 said as much:
“We need a fighter who can stand up to the left, who can stand up to the swamp, stand up to the media, stand up to the deep state… to stand up to the globalists and China, and stand up for America,” he said in South Carolina.
“And that’s what we do, we stand up for America.”
As for analogous time period in which these nearly identical events took place, this chart of the DJIA marks the spot: 1966-1972, the start of a tumultuous transitional phase into negative social mood and contracting stock prices.
Today, the real DJIA (as measured in gold) has been in a sustained downtrend since peaking in 1999. As Mark Twain famously said: “History doesn’t repeat itself; but it often rhymes.”
As for what other historic rhymes we see playing out on the societal stage — the November 2024 Socionomist includes a spine-tingling cover story on the rising popularity of horror movies and falling social mood. Don’t read this one after dark! (Available to subscribers on Oct. 24)
Also, in the November Socionomist, Matt Lampert makes an important contribution: a critical first step in answering the question of whether stock market performance can predict the success of a vice-Presidential candidate who then runs for President. In Matt’s words, “the results are pretty intriguing.” Subscribe today and read the full story, tomorrow!
