By Invest2Success
Biotechnology stocks and exchange-traded funds ETFs once played a significant role in growth equity rallies, but today it seems like those days are in the past.
The Biotechnology Index over the last three years declined by 0.8%, while the S&P 500 surged by 31.1% and the S&P 500 Growth Index climbed 23.7%. During this period biotech stocks even weighed down the broader healthcare sector, which saw the S&P Health Care Select Sector Index increase by nearly 20%.
In other words the excitement surrounding COVID-19 vaccines that boosted many biotech stocks during the 2020 market rebound has faded, leading investors to shift their focus to other growth areas, particularly artificial intelligence AI. This shift has resulted in an unusually prolonged period of underperformance for biotech stocks, despite the industry’s innovative reputation and the fact that many biotech stocks are currently undervalued.
However there are some positive angles to consider for biotech investments. For one it presents a contrarian opportunity. With patience investors might see long-term rewards.
Biotech Stocks Require Courage
Several factors support a potential rebound in biotech. While some of these factors are well-known, they may not be fully reflected in the share prices of large-cap biotech companies that are currently undervalued.
The long-term growth potential for biotechnology stocks is captivating. In the coming decades the aging global population will appreciably increase the demand for treatments and cures for age-related diseases. Moreover the biotech sector is experiencing rapid innovation, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning, which improve data analysis, and cloud-based infrastructure, which provides powerful computing capabilities.
Also biotech stocks are inversely related to interest rates due to the capital-intensive nature of drug development. This relationship helps to potentially explain the recent underperformance of biotech stocks. Lower interest rates such as those that could result from a potential Federal Reserve rate cut might benefit the sector.
Many biotech companies lack marketed products and are cash flow negative, relying on capital markets and larger pharmaceutical firms for funding. As interest rates and capital costs rise, funding for riskier projects becomes more challenging. Conversely lower rates could encourage capital flow into riskier biotech ventures.
Many biotech companies are still developing their products and are cash flow negative, depending on capital markets and larger pharmaceutical firms for financial support. As interest rates and capital costs increase, securing funding for high-risk projects becomes more difficult. On the other hand lower interest rates could stimulate investment in these riskier biotech ventures.
When is M&A Coming Back?
Aside from FDA approvals mergers and acquisitions M&A are a significant catalyst for biotech stocks, and this area is showing signs of revival. In the first quarter biopharma consolidation activity increased significantly compared to the previous year.
With major pharmaceutical companies holding vast cash reserves and facing upcoming patent expirations, biotech M&A activity could pick up in the coming years. Lower interest rates would further support this trend.
Lower interest rates could also boost M&A activity as large pharma companies look to replenish their drug pipelines. Historically, M&A has been a key driver of biotech stock returns. Over the past decade the average premium paid for an acquired biotech stock has been about 80%. While the total dollar volume of deals is currently below recent levels, the number of transactions exceeding $1 billion remains strong post-COVID-19. Along with lower interest rates factors like government price pressures and looming patent expirations provide strong incentives for increased M&A activity in the near future.
Lower interest rates could stimulate M&A activity as major pharmaceutical companies seek to replenish their drug pipelines. Historically, mergers and acquisitions have been a significant driver of biotech stock returns, with the average premium for acquired biotech firms around 80% over the past decade. Although the total dollar volume of deals is currently below recent highs, the number of transactions exceeding $1 billion has remained robust since the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to lower interest rates, factors such as government pricing pressures and upcoming patent expirations are likely to further drive M&A activity in the near future.
Will Lower Interest Rates Really Help?
Even if the Fed lowers interest rates, will it actually help the bio-tech sector with increasing M&A and on developing more new better drugs? With the intense competition in this industry, bio-tech winning and losing stocks are a specific case by case basis. Do your due diligence of fundamental technical analysis to reduce risk number one, and attempt to produce a high return number two. Invest2Success will be diligently analyzing the bio-tech stocks for any buy-long, and sell-short opportunities that may present themselves.
